Hey Buddy, Can You Spare a Dime?

Moronic Secretary of Labor, Elaine L. Chao, veteran non-profiteer and Republican insider, enthuses this week over the insignificant unemployment rate drop as a sign of economic recovery. As the still-jobless drop off the unemployment roles and just give up looking (about 500,000 this last measurement period) they are not counted as "the unemployed" anymore. Everyone has known about this measurement error (known as a measurement artifact in stat circles) for years.

That hasn't prevented “Chaos” from spinning this in the Administration's favor, “Today's drop in the unemployment rate is positive and surpasses market expectations.”

Shrub, choosing as usual to employ platitudes over specifics, lauds our present economy, “economy is vibrant and strong.” A quick look at the historical trend clearly shows that, even using the statistically bogus (see next graph) BLS unemployment figures, the last time employment was actually this weak was with Poppa Bush was President!

This flies in the face of the excellently straight-faced examination of unemployment on the Online NewsHour (Non-Working Numbers -- July 29, 2003) by Paul Solmon. He concludes his piece as follows: “Back in 1982, the percent of total working age men not employed for whatever reason -- discouraged, disabled, jailed, retired early, or officially out of work -- was 17.3 percent. But as of last month, that total was even higher: 17.8 percent not employed, which make the current job bust, at least for men, look far deeper than the official unemployment rate suggests.”

This corresponds neatly with those who consider themselves unemployed. Finally, there is an interesting tidbit from a Mark J. Penn poll for the Democratic leadership council (OK, OK, maybe not an unbiased source, but this stat is pretty basic). In this poll, 14% of those questioned identified themselves as "unemployed" and another 29% as “the working poor” (this is versus “blue collar”). That makes a total of un- or very poorly employed at 43%.

Maybe I'm too lazy to fully pursue this. Feel free to search out better data on this yourself. But isn't it reasonable to assume that the unemployed and the working poor are living on fumes at best? That they are draining their savings, investments and other equity (like from their homes)? And isn't it also reasonable to assume that many are also doing the same to the resources of family and friends?

Almost half of Americans think they are underemployed, unemployed, or just plain living hand-to-mouth. And it seems likely they are draining their savings, and reducing significantly the odds that even getting a job, or a better job, will dig them out of their hole...the rising personal debt in this country means, simply, that no one will ever “retire,” until they've “retired” their debts, too.

So the economy lost more jobs, even while unemployed rates went down. At best that's because of a small rise in temp jobs (no benefits, more medical bills and debt), and at worst because folks just fell off the measurement charts. Helluva recovery.
¶ 11:21 AM